23 Jan 2024

Workers less confident about keeping jobs, finding new ones

10:07 am on 23 January 2024

File pic Photo:

Employment confidence improved slightly at the end of last year, but workers are less confident about holding on to their jobs or finding a new one.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose 1.4 points to 99.7, still marginally pessimistic.

Senior economist Michael Gordon said the lift in sentiment seemed to have been driven by strong wage growth last year, and hopes it might continue, but he doubted it would be sustained.

"People are viewing their situation in inflation-adjusted terms - high inflation has meant that even those who have received larger pay rises in recent years still feel that they're struggling to get ahead.

"But with the jobs market also softening, people probably rightly perceive that the window of opportunity for a catch-up in pay rates won't be open for long."

The survey showed job security confidence falling to a three-year low, less confidence in the current jobs market, and a high level of negativity about future job prospects.

"This measure is particularly important, as it has traditionally given a good steer on the direction of the unemployment rate. In turn, unemployment is the single best real-time gauge of how hot the economy is running," Gordon said.

He said the survey pointed to unemployment moving above 4 percent in the December quarter from 3.9 percent, and perceptions of future job opportunities were at recessionary levels.

Public service workers were mildly optimistic, although sentiment in Wellington fell more than the survey average, suggesting caution about the change of government.

Get the RNZ app

for ad-free news and current affairs