29 Mar 2023

Confidence in labour market remains despite nervousness, Index finds

1:26 pm on 29 March 2023
Employment and unemployment generic photo.

Photo: RNZ

Households remain confident in the labour market, despite feeling that it will become harder to get a job.

The Westpac McDermott Miller Employment Confidence Index rose by 1.5 points to 109.5 in the three months ended March.

It compared to a 7-point drop in the December quarter, but remained below the recent peak of 115.2 in the September 2022 quarter.

Any reading above 100 indicated optimism, while anything below suggested pessimism.

"In contrast to the sharp drop in consumer confidence over the last year, people's feelings about the jobs market remain firmly on the positive side," Westpac senior economist Michael Gordon said.

While the labour market remained stretched, there were signs that it had passed its peak, as perceptions about current job opportunities fell for the second straight survey.

The measure tended to be a useful lead indicator of the unemployment rate, Westpac said.

"This is consistent with our view that we'll see a further rise in unemployment in coming quarters, albeit not a very rapid one," Gordon said.

Perceptions about job opportunities in the year ahead was flat in March, after a sharp drop in December.

Gordon said there was some nervousness around job prospects in the year ahead, as there may be a belief that the job opportunities have passed its peak.

The past and expected earnings growth indices increased, but both measures remained well below their long term averages.

"While average pay rates are rising faster than they have in decades, that's only been enough to match inflation - few households will feel like they're getting ahead," Gordon said.

Confidence amongst public sector workers fell 4.3 points from the previous quarter to 109.7, while private sector employees saw a 3.6 point rise to 108.2.

"Where some divergence of views is usually the case, this quarter both public sector and private sector employees are closely aligned in their assessment of current employment conditions as well as expectations for the future," McDermott Miller market research director Imogen Rendall said.

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