9 Mar 2023

Flat retail spending results pinned on cyclone disruption

2:40 pm on 9 March 2023
E-commerce. Paper boxes in shopping cart and credit card with smartphone on sales data economic growth graph, online shopping and payments, banking, buying and selling services online on network.

Stats NZ data showed seasonally adjusted card spending remained steady at $6.6 billion. (file image) Photo: 123RF

Retail card spending remained flat in February on the month earlier, as storm disruptions affected people's spending habits.

Stats NZ data showed seasonally adjusted card spending remained steady at $6.6 billion, compared with a 2.6 percent rise in January.

Spending rose across most retail areas, led by spending on durables, including furniture, hardware and appliances, as well as consumables, including groceries and liquor.

The only category that saw a fall was apparel (clothes and shoes), down 3 percent.

ASB Bank senior economist Mark Smith said Cyclone Gabrielle likely reduced people's appetite for apparel shopping.

"Apparel should also benefit from restocking after storm damages," he said.

"We are likely to see a boost to services, durable and apparel spending in the coming months as repair work starts and as damaged goods are replaced."

However, Smith said households faced multiple economic headwinds.

"The softer housing market backdrop, surging living costs - including steep increases in debt servicing costs for mortgage holders - and the erosion of post-lockdown savings has weakened household confidence and the willingness to spend."

He said the Reserve Bank had been "explicit" in saying domestic spending needed to slow to get inflation under control.

"However, inflation is likely to receive a Gabrielle-type boost and has remained much too high for a prolonged period."

ASB forecasted the Reserve Bank would hike the official cash rate by 50 basis point next month, with a peak rate of 5.25 percent.

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