30 May 2022

RBNZ taking flexible approach to interest rate increases, economist says

4:29 pm on 30 May 2022

The Reserve Bank's chief economist says it will remain flexible and its interest rate approach will respond to changing economic conditions.

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Last week, the central bank hiked its official cash rate by 50 basis points (half a percentage point) to two percent, and signalled on current conditions it could hit close to four percent by the end of the year and four-and-a-half percent by the middle of next year.

Paul Conway said the current rate track was their "best foot forward on their current view" but it could change depending on economic indicators.

"If we get six weeks or 12 weeks down the track and the place is cooling a bit more quickly than anticipated... we get to play the game again," he said in an interview with Reuters.

But he said the RBNZ's monetary policy committee was well aware of the risks if inflation expectations were to get out of control.

Since the RBNZ's last statement, bank economists have doubted whether the central bank would or should need to raise the cash rate so high, despite the aggressive tone of its statement.

"Inflation is clearly still the RBNZ's most wanted crook. The bank's forecast track, forward guidance and general fightin' talk all leave little doubt that OCR hikes are coming sooner, and to a higher endpoint than previously forecast," ASB economist Nathan Keall said.

He said households were set to come under more pressure from rising interest rates, while the housing market had further to fall and economic growth would slow.

"We're a bit sceptical the bank will end up lifting the OCR quite as high as it has signalled and suspect it'll have to reverse course sooner," Keall said.

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