27 May 2022

Dip in consumer confidence points to hard times for some retailers

11:54 am on 27 May 2022

Consumer sentiment remains down in the doldrums amid high inflation, rising interest rates and falling house prices.

Card payment in liquor store

Photo: 123rf

The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index slipped two points in May to sit just above its record low.

A net 30 percent of households thought it was a terrible time to buy a major household item, a seven-point fall on the April result.

ANZ chief economist Sharon Zollner said consumers did not have much to feel happy about, with real wages, house prices and equities falling, while interest rates were rising.

"Covid volatility dominates recent spending data, but the major household item measure sits well below the troughs of the 2008/09 recession, suggesting tough times ahead for retailers and others reliant on consumers opening their wallets.

"Retailers may get caught with higher inventories if retail spending does follow this indicator.

"That's tough on both cashflow and margins, but is part of how higher interest rates work to reduce inflation pressure."

Consumers' perceptions of their current financial situation deteriorated over the month, as did their expectations for house price growth.

Zollner said it was "very unusual" for consumers to feel like they would be worse off in a year's time, as people tended to feel optimistic about the future.

However, there were signs that the Reserve Bank's aggressive approach to tackling decades high inflation was working.

Consumer inflation expectations declined half a percent over the month to 5.1 percent, while still high, it was the lowest reading in eight months.

Zollner said following the RBNZ's second 50 basis point hike to the official cash rate this week, a third 50 basis point increase was expected in July.

"But from there we think the RBNZ can afford to dial back the pace of hiking to the usual pace of 25bp per meeting - there's no doubt they're getting traction."

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