8 Jul 2021

ANZ, Westpac and ASB banks expect OCR to rise earlier than expected

10:30 am on 8 July 2021

The ANZ, Westpac and ASB banks are united in their expectation the official cash rate (OCR) will be increased earlier than previously expected.

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They say it could happen as early as late November, when the Reserve Bank releases its final monetary policy statement for the year.

The OCR is at a record low of 0.25 percent - and an increase could hit mortgage holders the hardest.

Independent economist Cameron Bagrie told Morning Report interest rates were too low given the inflation pressures.

"So inflation looks like it's going to burst through 2 percent, there's a lot of debate out there about whether it's transitory or inflationary pressure is going to be a little bit more steppy."

From a central banking perspective, he said it would be better to get interest rates up sooner rather than later, because that would mean not needing to be more aggressive down the track.

"Of course where we sit in non-orthodox columns, there's still lots of risks out there. We're only a lockdown away from a completely different economic scenario.

"We've had low inflation for an incredibly long time, the Reserve Bank has missed their target on the underside. So I don't think they're going to get spooked if inflation is slightly above 2 percent for a while.

"We can debate the ideal inflation rates going forward, but I think the Reserve Bank should be prepared to let inflation sit around 2.5 percent for a while. I think we're in that scenario already.

"Once again, whether the Reserve Bank moves in the next six months or nine months, I think is pretty well irrelevant.

"What people need to get their heads around is this era of what we call ridiculous low interest rates is coming to an end. Interest rates are going to be moving up, but the story here is it's still low."

He said the economy was firing back after the Covid-19 lockdowns, and S&P estimated growth to be 4.6 percent for the coming year.

"Monetary policy has worked, the government expansionary fiscal policy pouring an awful lot of money into the economy has worked," Bagrie said.

In addition to that, the demand, outside of tourism, was "ripping back up", he said

"What we've got on the other side is the supply side of the economy, that's how fast we can grow, how much we can utilise our resources and what resources are available, in a post-Covid world that is restrained.

"What we're seeing at the moment across the economy is that the economy is grasping the capacity constraints and that's an environment where inflation is going to be moving up and by any benchmark it looks like we're pretty well at maximum sustainable employment."

RBNZ's focus should on a exit strategy over the next year or two, he said.

"The Reserve Bank has got an estimate of what they call the neutral official cash rate - that's where the Reserve Bank has got neither their foot on the accelerator nor the brake.

"That's sort of where you want to be."

The large-scale asset purchases programme - which aims to keep interest rates low - and Funding for Lending programme - which offers low-interest finance to banks for on-lending to businesses and households - should also be dialled back, he said.

"Because what they've got on the table is not just one mechanism to lower the Official Cash Rate.

"The banks are accessing cheap money, they're able to provide extra cheap mortgages."

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