Transpower believes it will not meet the revenue and profit targets for the year ending June 2015 implied in its statement of corporate intent.
That is because of a number of Commerce Commission decisions, including a reduction in the amount of profit the national electricity grid operator can earn.
The Government-owned company said its fourth quarter revenue this year would be $19 million lower than estimated and that thereafter revenue would be at least $75 million a year lower.
The chief executive, Alison Andrew, said that would significantly reduce Transpower's profit in the current year and the following five years.
"The Commerce Commission made a sweep of decisions - the rate of return was one of them," she said."
"But collectively, that's where we have come to, the down-rating of our revenue."
Transpower, which has $465 million of bonds listed on NZX, had forecast that it would pay the Government a $188 million dividend for the year ending June 2015 and a $220 million dividend the following year.