Four of the government's key targets remain at risk of being met, the latest update shows.
RNZ is tracking progress towards each of the government's nine targets, based on official data provided by the agencies being measured.
The graphics are updated each quarter, with the most recent progress report covering up to March 2025.
Employment and reading, writing and mathematics targets are classified as 'at risk' of not being met, and two health targets are considered 'feasible' - meaning they are still possible but are behind schedule and face "major risks and/or issues".
Targets considered 'on track' include reducing the number of victims of crime, the number of households in emergency housing and meeting near-term greenhouse gas emission targets.
The nine targets were selected to focus the public sector on priorities.
Progress is reported quarterly, and each responsible agency assigns a status, ranging from on track to unachievable. Progress toward reaching a target can still be classed as feasible, even if there are major risks or issues in meeting it, as long as the agency in charge believes these can be resolved.
The nine targets are set to be delivered by 2030, beyond the current political term.
The areas of most progress: crime, housing and climate
The number of serious and persistent youth offenders has decreased by 32 since last quarter, and is 42 away from reaching the target of 900 or fewer.
For a youth offender to be classed as a serious or persistent offender they must have committed three or more offences in the past 12 months, with at least one of them having a maximum penalty of seven years' imprisonment or more.
Hitting the targeted 15 percent reduction by 2030 is considered probable, meaning it needs "constant attention" to ensure any risks to the target do not develop into major issues.
Bootcamps, improving response teams and locally-led initiatives and increased school attendance are listed as areas the government is focused on to reach the target.
The only goal to shift from "feasible" to "on track" this quarter is reducing the number of victims of assault, robbery or sexual assault. It has dropped by 33,662 since the last quarterly update.
This target was kept as one of the nine government targets, despite officials suggesting it would be difficult to achieve and should be replaced with something easier to reach.
The goal to reduce the number of victims of assault, robbery, and sexual assault by 20,000 by 2030 is based on data from the New Zealand Crime and Victims' Survey. Officials warned the survey data had a high margin of error and was more suitable for showing long-term trends.
The survey includes crimes that victims might have experienced up to two years prior.
Details about the reduction were announced in April, with Justice Minister Paul Goldsmith saying it considered the numbers to be robust, however, he expected the data to remain volatile.
The Ministry of Justice warned the numbers from quarterly releases are also more volatile and should be considered indicative only.
Initiatives to reach the target include limiting sentencing discounts, improving security at targeted locations and breaking the cycle of violence with expanded drug and alcohol interventions for in remand custody.
Driving down the number of households in emergency housing is one target where progress has streaked ahead of estimates.
Starting from a baseline of 3141 households, the goal was to reduce the number by 75 percent, to 800 or fewer.
The current number is 528, well below the 800 which was the 2030 goal.
Part of the plan to reach the target includes improving access to other forms of housing for emergency housing residents. Since a fast-track category for waitlists was created in April, 972 households have shifted from emergency housing, such as motels, to social housing.
Criteria to be placed in emergency housing have also tightened despite warnings from officials that this could lead to an increase in rough sleepers. This has led to almost a third of applications for emergency housing to be declined.
In Auckland, the number of people living in cars, parks or on the streets has increased from 426 people in September to 653 people in December.
There are two targets New Zealand has committed to meeting as part of its net zero climate change goal.
The first target is for total greenhouse gas emissions between 2022 and 2025 to be below 290 megatonnes. This target is on track to being achieved.
Reaching the second target - for total emissions between 2026 and 2030 to be less than 309 mt - appears to be more of a challenge due to a project to store carbon facing uncertainty, as it doesn't stack up commercially. This project represented a third of proposed carbon savings expected to be made from 2025 to 2030.
There was no quarterly update to the numbers on this target, but the government still considers it to be on track.
Some progress but a long way to go: School attendance, and healthcare
At 58.1 percent, Term 4's attendance rate is well below the target of 80 percent of students present for more than 90 percent of the term. This means students should take no more than five days off a term.
Absence is classed as either "justified" or "unjustified". Justified absences include illnesses, and other reasons which fall under school policy, such as suspensions. Unjustified absences include truancy, or taking holidays in term time. The government target of 80 percent makes no distinction between the two.
Notes provided to Cabinet when the targets were being set said it would be difficult to meet the 80 percent target while Covid-19 is still circulating.
The Ministry of Education said its estimated attendance levels until 2029 is not a "technical forecast" but is based on historical patterns of greater attendance drops during winter months due to illness.
Since 2011, the highest percentage of students attending 90 percent of a school term was 72.8 percent, in Term 1 of 2019. The average over that time was 59.4 percent.
Reaching this target is deemed "probable".
In healthcare, the goal for 95 percent of patients to be admitted, discharged or transferred from an emergency department within six hours is still some way off.
The latest period of reporting shows only 72.1 percent of patients were seen within that timeframe. This is a increase from the last quarter when 67.5 percent of patients were seen within six hours.
When setting this target, officials warned there was a risk it would not be achievable in the short term.
"Most ED [emergency departments] nationwide are over capacity most of the time," a briefing to ministers read.
It said wait times were affected by resourcing, community services, bed availability and seasonal changes, such as increased demand during flu season.
Attempting to reduce wait times would require significant system-wide change in hospitals, primary care and aged care, the briefing said.
"There would be a risk the target is achieved by focusing resources intensively in ED at the expense of other areas of the health system. This may result in improved ED wait times in the short term, but - through reduction in the quality of care elsewhere - would likely result in worse health outcomes and ultimately higher ED presentations in the medium to long term."
Te Whatu Ora's plan to meet the target is to "stabilise" Health NZ's governance. Primary care is also seen as a solution, with investment in services such as digital access and retaining doctors. A funding boost of $164 million was announced for urgent and after care healthcare.
Reaching the 95 percent goal by 2030 is considered to be feasible, meaning there are major risks to achievement.
The target for 95 percent of people to receive elective treatment within four months is a long way away from being achieved, although tracking in the right direction.
At the moment 59.2 percent of people needing elective treatments, such as hip or cataract surgeries, are seen within four months. This is lower than the 62.2 percent reported in the last quarter.
A $50 million investment has been made to reduce a backlog of surgeries, which is expected to fund 10,579 procedures. To date, at least 9696 have been performed.
There's also a push to use private hospitals to perform procedures, with Health Minister Simeon Brown suggesting that Health NZ secure 10 year contracts with private hospitals.
Delivery of this target is considered feasible, indicating there are still major risks.
A long way off: Employment, reading and maths achievement
Achievement rates for mathematics and reading are still well below the government target of 80 percent of Year 8 students being at or above the expected curriculum level.
Currently 47 percent of students are at the expected level in reading and 22 percent in mathematics.
Writing has not been assessed recently but the 2019 data put 35 percent of students at the expected level.
A plan to raise mathematics achievement has been launched and structured literacy will be introduced for students from Year 0 to 6 in 2025.
This target is measured annually, so there is no change since the last quarterly update.
Also considered "at risk" is the employment target.
The number of people receiving Jobseeker support decreased by 5500 to 209,800 since the December report. But this is nearly 27,000 above the forecast for March 2024 and 69,800 away from the overall goal of 140,000 or fewer people receiving support by 2030.
The government's update suggests new applicants will reduce as economic conditions improve and "welfare system interventions" are embedded over 2025.
Measures to reduce the number of people on Jobseeker benefit include stricter sanctions via a traffic light system. The system saw 13,300 sanctions handed out in the latest quarter.
The March update says more client engagement is occurring, with 93,000 more Jobseeker recipients attending appointments compared to the same period in 2024.
