15 Jul 2021

Covid-19: Australian experts release vaccination modelling

From Morning Report, 7:38 am on 15 July 2021

An Australia-based expert is warning people will need to change their mindset towards Covid-19 as the vaccination programme rolls out.

Epidemiologist Tony Blakely has released his modelling on vaccination rates will affect the Covid-19 and the border and told Morning Report people need to think about the level of risk they're willing to tolerate.

Blakely said herd immunity by vaccination alone is largely impossible with more than 90 percent of the population required to be vaccinated to achieve it.

But public health measures combined with most of the population being vaccinated would reduce the impact.

"If New Zealand and Victoria get to that 70 percent vaccination, we should be okay with the contact tracing, we can probably open up to relatively normal situation and have perhaps 100 deaths in the next year, a couple of 1000 hospitalizations as the maximum and spend very little time in lockdown."

Complete normality is unlikely to come back any time soon though, especially once the borders open up.

"When we open up the borders, if we keep in place our contact tracing, and I see no reason why we won't, if we keep in place masking on public transport, places like that, if we keep in place physical distancing, and supermarket queues, that sort of thing, we should be okay."