Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, left, wiith Tuvalu Prime Minister Feleti Teo at the Pacific Islands Forum in Nuku'alofa, Tonga on 28 August 2024. Photo: Facebook / Anthony Albanese
No major changes are expected in how Australia engages with the Pacific, geopolitical experts say.
Anthony Albanese's Labor Party will have another three-year term after a landslide victory over Peter Dutton's Liberal Party.
Griffith University's Associate Professor Tess Newton Cain said Albanese and his team felt they had done a good job in the first term "repairing relations that they felt had been let slide".
"Basically, their position is that there will be more of the same," Newton Cain said.
"A lot of focus on security, and we will also see more of the same of levels of engagement, seeing ministers in the region and high-level visits here to Australia."
University of Cantebury's Distinguished Professor Steven Ratuva expects Australia's role in regional security and aid to increase, filling the void left by the Trump administration, which froze foreign aid.
"Those would have to change in terms of how Australia is able to adapt to the changing circumstances, particularly with the new security needs and so forth in relation to the Pacific," he said.
"But by and large, I think we probably may not see a paradigm shift."
The amount of aid going to the Pacific from Australia is the highest it has ever been.
The Nauru-Australia Treaty signed by Nauru's President David Adeang, left, and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in Canberra. 9 December 2024. Photo: Facebook / Anthony Albanese
However, Newton Cain said Australia's aid budget was still "very, very low".
"Australia is not a generous donor when you compare with other global donors," the Pacific analyst said.
"If Australia did want to take on filling that gap left by USAID [United States Agency for International Development], it would have to be prepared to put some more money into it."
In the lead-up to the election, Tuvalu's Climate Change Minister criticised Liberal Party leader Dutton for suggesting a joint Australia-Pacific bid to host global climate talks next year was "madness".
Australia and Papua New Guinea signed a bilateral security agreement on Thursday, 7 December 2023. Photo: Facebook.com/Anthony Albanese
Palau's president also criticised Dutton for previously joking about rising sea levels.
Newton Cain said there would be some relief among leaders that Albanese has been re-elected.
The host of COP31 will not be decided until June this year.
"I think it is worth remembering that there are still some caveats around that acceptance, or that joy, if you like, people are still wanting to know exactly what that joint [COP31] offering will look like."
She said Pacific nations wanted to know what the Pacific part of the offering entails and not "greenwashing for Australia".
Australian PM Anthony Albanese receives a tabua during the traditional welcome to Fiji at the Black Rock Army Camp in Nadi on 15 March 2023. Photo: Facebook Screenshot / Fiji Government
Ratuva said Australia had been seen in a very negative light by Pacific Island states on its climate policy.
"One of the most significant aspects of building trust is really the way in which they have to adjust their climate policies in a way which is respectable enough."
Pacific campaigner for climate change group 350.org said the organisation's work was cut out for them, but Labor was in a better position to deliver on climate policies.
"They are basically in the right direction of where we want to see climate action. They just need to be held accountable," she said.
"Australia does not do enough for climate action, so there is an opportunity here for that partnership to really improve."
Newton Cain said Senator Penny Wong would likely remain as Foreign Minister, but she would not be surprised if someone replaces Pat Conroy as Minister for the Pacific.
