Key stakes as French defence minister hosts Pacific defence ministers’ meeting

Analysis - French defence minister Sébastien Lecornu has arrived at the weekend in New Caledonia for a week-long visit and a focus on hosting the 10th South Pacific Defence Ministers' Meeting (SPDMM) on 5-6 December.

The two-day regional meeting, hosted for the first time by France at the Nouméa-based Pacific Community (SPC) headquarters, is perceived as a major event to confirm France as a major player in the global Indo-Pacific strategy, especially in the Pacific region.

The SPDMM's main focus will be on strategies to coordinate regional armed forces to provide assistance to regional countries faced with the adverse effects of climate change, including assistance in times of natural disasters such as cyclones, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and tsunamis.

Since 1992, a so-called "FRANZ" (France, Australia, and New Zealand) armed forces agreement has specialised in this kind of post-disasters assistance to neighbouring Pacific island countries.

Another focus is to provide the necessary means to fight illegal fishing in the huge Pacific Ocean's region, based on another alliance, the Pacific QUAD+, which also involves the United States.

This chapter means maritime and air surveillance patrols availed to monitor the region's Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZ).

The US will be represented as an observer during this week's SPDMM meeting, Lecornu stressed.

The SPDMM, originally founded by Australia in a post-RAMSI context, this year celebrates its 10th anniversary.

Its members are Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Tonga and France, observers being the US, UK and Japan.

A Pacific military academy

A major project, announced in July 2023 by French President Emmanuel Macron during a Pacific tour (that included not only New Caledonia but also Vanuatu and Papua New Guinea), is to create a Nouméa-based "Pacific Military Academy" to train regional Pacific islands soldiers.

On all of these topics, one major notion is consistently being brought forward: the "inter-operability" (the capacity for participating forces to seamlessly work together) between Pacific armed forces, whatever the operational scenario.

An even more geostrategic goal was to strengthen existing regional security alliances in the face of growing tensions and "block-forming" and the confrontation between China on one part and on the other part the US and its allies (including Australia).

"I think Pacific island states are faced with very real threats, including climate change. They also face huge challenges in terms of respect for their sovereignty, including maritime. They also watch the formation of blocks in the North (Pacific) and are worried about the consequences in the South (Pacific)", Lecornu told a press conference at the weekend in Manila (Philippines), where he signed a declaration of intent with his counterpart Gilberto Teodoro Jr.

Focus on regional assistance

"But the notion of Defence (ministers' meeting) does not necessarily mean that it will be a military-focused meeting because most of the topics will include fighting against climate change effects, natural disasters, civil security, intelligence sharing, illegal fishing, and how, in a continent of water, there is a network of solidarities that is taking place in times of trouble. Obviously, France has things to offer, in solidarity and in a brotherly way", he added.

"So I think this is an important moment for the South Pacific, which is watching and wondering about the developments of world affairs (...) we have to have a plan for Oceania", he said, mentioning space satellites and drones as future solutions for surveillance in the region.

"This is part of President Macron's Indo-Pacific strategy".

But even though, true to his notorious "at the same time" mantra, Macron's Indo-Pacific paradigm claims to offer a "third way" apart from siding either with the US or the Chinese, the French strategy has evolved in recent months to become more pragmatic and less theoretical.

The rapprochement was noticeable with the US and its key regional ally, Australia.

Top officers from the US 7th Pacific fleet have recently visited French Polynesia's Pacific naval command and even Paris-based US Ambassador Denise Campbell Bauer late October toured the French Pacific, where she has held talks with key stakeholders and consistently stressed those islands were at the core of "vital stakes" in the Pacific region. The tour was described as "the first time a US Ambassador in France has travelled to Nouméa and Papeete".

"New Caledonia and French Polynesia are at the centre of numerous vital stakes", she said, citing "indefectible links" and joint efforts worldwide to "preserve security and prosperity".

Turning the page on France-Australia past tensions

Apart from the US "observer" delegation in Nouméa this week, another special guest will be Australia's defence Minister and deputy PM Richard Marles, who has visited France on several occasions since he took up his position in Anthony Albanese's Labour government.

Under a previous executive, France and Australia's relations suffered a major setback when, in September 2021, a new block, "AUKUS" (Australia, the United Kingdom, the United States) was announced and that at the same time, Australia revealed it had cancelled a multi-billion dollar contract with France to provide French non-nuclear submarines.

This caused a major diplomatic crisis between Paris and Canberra.

Coincidentally, Monday and Tuesday this week, French Foreign minister Catherine Colonna is also a part of the French-Australian mending exercise: she is travelling to Canberra as a follow-up of talks held in Paris in January 2023 between defence and foreign ministers from both countries ("2+2-format").

In their joint statement at the time, the four top ministers stressed "the importance of a strong Franco-Australian partnership to preserve the international order based on the rule of law and to work together to maintain an open, stable, and prosperous Indo-Pacific region where sovereignty and international law are respected."

"They reaffirmed their shared commitment to addressing the priorities of the Pacific in terms of climate change, sustainable development and maritime security, in close consultation with Pacific Island countries and consistent with the Boe Declaration on Regional Security".

They also "agreed to continue their efforts and cooperation to support maritime security in the South Pacific to address threats linked to transnational crime, including illegal, unregulated and unreported (IUU) fishing and trafficking, particularly through the work of the Pacific Quadrilateral Defence Coordination Group".

In the same document, France and Australia "agreed to deepen operational and logistical cooperation to support their commitment to shared interests in the Indo-Pacific" and to "enhance our armed forces' mutual access to (...) defence infrastructure and step up joint exercising to strengthen interoperability in the Indo-Pacific. This work will be supported by an annual dialogue between Chiefs of Defence and a Regional Cooperation plan between the New Caledonian Armed Forces and the Australian Defence Force."

In Nouméa this week, as part of the SPDMM, Lecornu is also scheduled to hold bilateral talks with Defence chiefs from the neighbouring Pacific region: Fiji (Pio Tikoduadua), Tonga (PM Siaso Sovaleni), Papua New Guinea (Win Bakri Daki), Australia (Deputy PM Richard Marles) and New Zealand (Judith Collins).

New Caledonia: a cornerstone, despite current political uncertainty

The regional SPDMM is also highlighting the strategic role played by New Caledonia in the regional security architecture.

Talks on the French Pacific entity's political future have been ongoing for the past months, after a series of three referendums on self-determination have yielded three "no" to independence.

But the French government and its Home Affairs and Overseas minister Gérald Darmanin, who has travelled to Nouméa six times over the past year, are still to get all political parties to actively take part in inclusive sessions covering a range of issues such as a New Caledonian citizenship, a new version of its electoral roll and a timeline for a future self-determination referendum.

One component of the pro-independence front (FLNKS), the Union Calédonienne (UC) party, is still refusing to take part in those talks in a format involving all parties around the same table at the same time.

They are contesting the legitimacy of the final referendum held on 12 December 2021 and claim they want to bring the matter before the International Court of Justice (ICJ).

Darmanin stressed during his recent visit last week that to date, even though UC has repeatedly brought the thinly-veiled threat to the political discussions, no such claim had been filed with the ICJ.

Other FLNKS components, such as the PALIKA and the UPM, have already agreed to be part of the inclusive talks' format.

Asked about New Caledonia's current political future uncertainty, Lecornu replied: "I would be inclined to think that, after three referendums that settled New Caledonia's wish to remain part of the French republic, we might no longer need to ask ourselves about its future".

"(As former minister for Overseas) I was in charge of political discussions. Now our Minister for Home Affairs and Overseas is in charge of these talks on New Caledonia's institutional future. A lot of issues are on the table, but those issues will not dissipate the threats on this region."

"When pro-independence mayors in small villages of Northern New Caledonia can see the shoreline advancing and a part of the land being submerged by the Pacific Ocean, this is very real.

"When fleets of illegal fishers were coming, just six or seven years ago, to pillage New Caledonia's fish stocks, there is no question about who is pro-independence, anti-independence, this is also very real and it has to be dealt with.

"So today we also have to have a plan around New Caledonia's future and this plan includes military, global protection and security chapters. If we were not doing this, we would be lying to our French citizens who live there.

There are currently about 2,800 defence force personnel deployed permanently in the Pacific region, including 1,600 in New Caledonia and 1,200 in French Polynesia.

Speaking in Nouméa in July, Macron said these numbers would be increased by an extra 200 for New Caledonia by the end of 2023.