New Caledonia's largest anti-independence party says in the next two years there is unlikely to be any change in the balance between those in favour and those opposed to independence from France.
Earlier this month, just over 56 percent voted against independence, with the losing side immediately invoking the constitutionally guaranteed option of going to another plebiscite within two years.
The Caledonia Together party said the referendum result reflected in the main the election outcome of recent decades with about 57 percent of voters backing anti-independence parties.
However, its analysis suggested that in the mainly Kanak provinces, there was a growing trend to oppose independence.
It also suggested that the pro-independence side could only win if all new voters are opposed the status quo and turnout exceeded 90 percent.