The polls point to an easy Labor victory in this Saturday's Australian election. But can Scott Morrison defy the odds and keep the Liberal-National Coalition in power?
Photo: AFP
Australians go to the polls on Saturday, and all reason points to a change of government.
But "Scotty from marketing" has been here before – he's a great campaigner and came back last election when he'd been written off.
But this time, Scott Morrison really would have to rise from the dead, says Kiwi ex-pat and political scientist Ross Stitt.
"There's no question that he is seen as untrustworthy, tricky, slick ... but by the same token, when you see him campaign in person he seems to have more of a human touch than most of the recent Australian prime ministers have had," he says.
"But there's too much against him. His lack of popularity, particularly with women; criticism from his own colleagues; the problems with the cost of living and inflation; if he would win this election it would be a remarkable turnaround."
Morrison's rival, Labor's Anthony Albanese, has basically run a non-campaign where he's aiming to be a "small target" – in other words, don't promise anything and it can’t be attacked.
Labor leader Anthony Albanese Photo: AFP
"A lot of people would say he’s a really nice guy," says Stitt. "But he really doesn't have a lot of charisma. He's probably honest and I think most people don't think he's untrustworthy like Morrison."
But in the days of presidential-style campaigning, it's important to have someone with the x-factor. Albanese has also made a series of gaffes on the campaign trail, failing to come up with the answers on some very basic economic questions. Albanese has a degree in economics.
On The Detail, Stitt guides us through the issues, the personalities, the Australian voting system and the impact a change of government might have on New Zealand.
The current government is the centre-right Coalition, made up of the Liberals and National. Challenging on the centre-left is Labor. Complicating the picture are a series of "teal" independents, blue-green candidates who might once have stood under the Coalition banner because of their economic leanings, but have progressive cultural leanings – including concerns the country is not moving fast enough on climate change. They are generally aiming for wealthy inner-city electorates where that issue resonates.
The government currently holds the bare minimum 76 seats in the parliament and Labor only needs to pick up seven, but it's not a straight-forward path.
Stitt also talks us through the issues – and non-issues – in this election. Top of people's concerns is the cost of living, but what Australians aren't interested in also gives us an insight into some of the differences between us and our cousins across the Tasman.
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