Three Chinese warships conducted live-fire drills off the coast of Australia in February. Photo: AFP / Australian Defence Force
China continues to stand head and shoulders above other Asian economies in terms of New Zealand's future, according to a new national survey released Tuesday.
The results come as Prime Minister Christopher Luxon departs Auckland to spend three days in China this week on a brisk whistle-stop tour of Shanghai and Beijing.
The Asia New Zealand Foundation's annual survey shows that 4 in 5 Kiwis believe it is important for the country to strengthen its political, economic and social ties with Asia.
The report presents the results from a survey of 2300 New Zealanders aged 15 years and over conducted from 6 November to 4 December 2024.
Respondents identified China (83 percent) as the most important Asian partner for New Zealand's future, followed by Japan (73 percent), India (59 percent), Singapore (56 percent) and South Korea (52 percent).
The survey also found that North Asia is viewed as the most critical sub-region for New Zealand, although perceptions of Southeast Asia's importance are rising.
Views on South Asia remains steady.
Suzannah Jessep, chief executive of the Asia New Zealand Foundation, said New Zealanders are becoming more discerning about regional relationships.
"Our conversations have shifted from 'Asia' to conversations about the specific countries and sectors that we are engaged with," she said. "The report shows that today our ties across the Asia region are broader, deeper and more mutually beneficial than ever."
Defence and security concerns
The report also highlights growing recognition of Asia's role in New Zealand's defence and security landscape.
Two-thirds of respondents say they are concerned about the possibility of military conflict in Asia, although opinions vary on where such a conflict is most likely to emerge over the next decade.
Views are similarly divided on whether New Zealand should boost its own defence spending.
Thirty-seven percent believe the country's current spending is adequate, while 35 percent say the government should allocate more.
Public opinion on AUKUS - the trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States - is also mixed, though skews slightly positive.
Thirty-five percent of respondents believe the arrangement will make the Asia-Pacific region safer, compared with just 7 percent who think it will make the region less secure.
Views on China and United States shift
While China continues to be ranked highly in terms of importance, public sentiment toward the country remains mixed.
The shift in sentiment follows China's live-fire drills in the Tasman Sea and partnership agreement with the Cook Islands in February.
Still, more New Zealanders view China as an ally than a threat. Thirty-eight percent describe China as a friend - up from 33 percent in the previous survey - while 28 percent sees it as a threat, down from 32 percent.
The same holds true for the United States, where perceptions have cooled amid tariff announcements and shifts in foreign policy toward Russia and Ukraine.
The US was the only country to record a significant decline in "friend" perceptions in the 2024 survey, falling four percentage points to 61 percent.
To gain further insight into the impact of foreign policy developments in China and the United States following the US elections, a supplementary 'mini poll' of 1000 New Zealanders was conducted between 6 and 10 March.
The polled showed that New Zealanders' friend perceptions of the United States and China had dropped considerably, while threat perceptions for both rose.
China once again tipped into "net threat" territory, with 41 percent of respondents viewing it as a threat, compared with just 21 percent who considered it a friend.
Perceptions of the United States declined more sharply. Those who saw the U.S. as a friend dropped from 61 percent to 32 percent, while threat perceptions rose from 17 percent to 32 percent - marking the first time the U.S. has not been viewed as a "net friend" in the history of the survey.
Jason Young, director of Victoria University of Wellington's New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, said the rise in threat perceptions toward China - and associated drop in friend perceptions - reflected recent developments, including Chinese naval live-fire exercises in the Tasman Sea and Beijing's new partnership agreement with the Cook Islands.
At the same time, he attributed the decline in positive views of the United States to the unpredictable and increasingly unilateral foreign policy of the new administration of President Donald Trump.
"The result reflects how New Zealanders view the new US administration's foreign policy," he said. "I think it's not about how we see the US, but more about how people have viewed US foreign policy under the new US administration."
He said most New Zealanders tended to be wary of great powers.
"Most New Zealanders don't naturally like great powers," he said. "Because we are a smaller power, and so great powers are seen as something quite old-fashioned."
