Director, writer and producer Kevin Goetz has been at the centre of the movie research industry for more than 30 years. His firm Screen Engine/ASI conducts screenings for test audiences - including in New Zealand - and research for a majority of all movies that are widely released around the world.
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Hollywood star Charlize Theron has said he gets inside the heads of movie watchers like no one else, and he has released a new book Audience-ology: How Moviegoers Shape the Films We Love.
He talked with Sunday Morning about the recent Oscars incident, and why the pandemic - and the absence of regular screening processes - has helped continue the trend of movie duration times.
Goetz is a member of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences and was at the Oscars ceremony when actor Will Smith slapped presenter Chris Rock after the comedian made a joke about his wife, Jada Pinkett-Smith.
"It was quite a shock, and very very disappointing to be overshadowed by such an incident as we all witnessed," he said.
"Being in the room you could hear a pin drop. It was just jaw-dropping."
The incident may have actually boosted audience numbers this year, but before this year, audiences for the event have been falling.
"The primary culprit is not the Oscars themselves, because it's a revered institution... what really it's an indictment of is live television viewing, period - particularly by Gen Z's and half of millennials," he said.
"I mean they just don't watch live events, and there's so many movies now there's just so much choice out there. And I think that the general audience thinks that the Academy - of which I am a member - feel like we're out of touch: 'How could you not nominate Spider-Man?'
"Well, Spider-Man is a terrific picture, but most of the people around the world haven't seen every single movie, like I have."
Research by Goetz' firm showed very few people worldwide have watched many of this year's nominated films.
"I think if the audience at large had seen most of those movies they would have agreed with the Academy, they would have voted with the Academy."
Does he think Will Smith's career and reputation will survive?
"I'm the wrong guy to ask - I give most everyone second chances, I believe in second chances," he said.
"The question really, is what is the punishment as it relates to the crime? And in fact hitting someone unprovoked is a crime.
"So that has to be dealt with. And it needs to be dealt with in a strong enough way that we make a point and it's not about anything except a violent act."
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Why do movies seem to be getting longer these days?
"I test movies with audiences of maybe 300 or 400 people to gauge audience reaction and then offer that feedback to filmmakers and heads of studio and producers. ....Word of mouth, in almost every product category, especially in movies, has the best correlation to whether or not a movie stays in a theatre or not.
"In the course of Covid and the pandemic, when that came and closed down the testing of movies in person, we had to pivot and created an online screening platform, but many didn't test, and I think because many of them did not go through the testing process - many filmmakers went a little bit too bit indulgent and didn't cut their movies sufficiently to create a satisfaction level."
Goetz said the art of timing a movie to the right length to tell the particular tale it needs to unfold will affect how an audience responds to it.
"The worst thing you want is to say, 'well I loved that movie, but my gosh was that too long', or, 'I love that movie, but man was it confusing at the end, I had no idea what they wanted us to think or feel'.
"Some of the greatest movies of all time are 2.5 hours plus. It is not about a movie being too long because in minutes it's too long, it's because it feels too long.
"I worked on a movie last night - which name I cannot mention - which might be as close to a masterpiece as I have seen in the last five years - it's three hours long! And if it takes three hours to get there, so be it. If it takes an hour and a half, great."
Goetz said movies such as the James Bond films, with very high security requirements where early audience screening leaks could give away key secrets often skip the screening process as a trade off for minimising the potential for leaks.
But almost every movie that runs tests with audiences will have something changed before release, he said.
"If you care about your lead character, you really invest in their journey... then almost anything else can be fixed. Too long can be cut, an ending can be reshot, you can't buy authenticity.
"There are movies where I have recommended [reshooting something], and it's been implemented, and 40 percent of the movie's been reshot in some cases."
During the pandemic Auckland test audiences were used by Goetz' company, because theatres were still able to operate when they were closed in other parts of the world.
Goetz is also a movie producer, and said when his own movies have been tested with audiences he's had to face the feedback head on himself, and make drastic revisions.
"I had to listen, I had to say: 'take the ego out of it, what are they saying, and how can I make this better?' "
Goetz said as the popularity of screening services increases, movie viewing is being divided into two types - most movies are watched at home, but many people do still want to go to the cinema for some big standout movie experiences.
"The independents will [continue to] have a niche market within theatres with people of a certain age - Boomers and some Xers, but younger people don't care about movies. Kids don't have that relationship with a movie theatre any more."
Smaller movies in particular won't do well in theatres, Goetz said, but as long as filmmakers know what audience they're shooting for, and design their production to suit, it doesn't matter whether they show in theatres or rely on streaming services to reach audiences - they can still produce successful movies.
