82,000 people would have to quit smoking before the end of the year in order to meet the goal of Smokefree 2025 - and public health researchers say there is precious little chance of it happening.
Since it was adopted in 2011, successive governments - including the current one - have had the goal of making New Zealand Smokefree by the end of this year.
That goal aims to reduce daily smoking prevalence to less than 5% across all population groups by the end of 2025.
Last year, the Coalition government repealed three areas of Smokefree law including denicotinisation of tobacco products, and banning the sale of tobacco products to those born after January 1, 2009.
Latest data from the Annual Health Survey shows there are currently 300,000 daily smokers, and University of Otago Research Fellow Calvin Cochran, says to meet the Smokefree goal by New Year's Eve, more than 80,000 would need to quit.
He says the government initiative providing free vape 'starter' kits to smokers wanting to stop will help fewer than 500, according to his team's research.
Associate Health Minister Casey Costello says getting 80,000 smokers to quit by year end is a big ask, but not impossible.