After the midterms in the US Republicans will have a slim majority in House of Representatives, not what they had expected at all. At least 20 seats fewer, possibly 25 fewer than forecast.
The Senate will be 50-50 or possibly could have 51 Democrats, depending on a runoff in Georgia next month.
It's an unexpected boost for President Joe Biden, senior editor and correspondent on the Washington Desk for NPR News Ron Elving says, and Biden is now more likely to run again.
On the other hand, things are looking bad for Donald Trump, whose hand-picked candidates mostly lost in the important races.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis won re-election by 20 points and emerges as strong rival to Trump for 2024.
“President Biden went off to his trip to Bali, went to his meeting with President Xi of China, with the thought that he would have been weakened by a drubbing, a serious setback in these midterm elections. That was what was expected, I believe, almost universally.
“And instead what has happened was the Democrats have held the Senate with a bare minimum, they might pick up another seat and have a clear majority in Georgia next month.”
The Republicans fell way short of expectations in the House too, he says.
“The Republicans were expecting to gain between 20 and 30 seats and occasionally, when feeling sanguine, thinking about 40 seats, it appears they may have gained single digits at best, and possibly as few as a handful.”
The Republican majority could be as slim as two, he says.
“So that is going to make it much more difficult for them to be an effective opposition to President Biden, or for that matter and effective foil against the Senate.”
Midterm elections are almost always a push back against the incumbent president, Elving says.
“They're usually a referendum on the current president. But this one seems to have been more of a push back against previous president and his behaviour since leaving office.
“There did seem to be a great deal of concern, as some of us wondered might emerge, with just the functioning of democracy, the calling into question of the integrity of the vote in 2020, did it take root? Apparently not.
Election denial candidates running in marquee races almost to a person were defeated, Elving says.
"I think that issue of democracy really asserted itself, and a certain fatigue with the previous president was evident".
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis did exceptionally well in Florida making him a possible heir apparent to Trump, Elving says.
“Ron DeSantis has not come right out and said he wants to run against Trump in 2024. We are still expecting Trump to make an announcement as he has promised in next 36 hours about his intentions.
“And it has been widely expected and anticipated that he would be announcing he was running in 2024. Now instead of having this huge red wave as people were supposedly calling it, instead of having that to ride, he seems to be bucking the tide.”
Republicans with their eye on the prize may be keeping their powder dry at this stage, he says.
“To see whether or not former President Trump is indicted in the next month or two, either for the documents case - the secret documents that he took with him illegally when he left office - or back to the January 6 insurrection and his role in the conspiracy that led to that insurrection. Either of those could result in an indictment. And that's just some of his legal problems.”
The mid-term results may embolden Biden, but his age remains a factor, Elving says, and vice President Kamala Harris has a poor electoral record.
“We do have a vice president Kamala Harris, who would, if for any reason Biden couldn't complete this term, step into his shoes and be the President of the United States.
“Now, if that were to happen, that would make her the clear front runner for the Democrats in 2024. If it doesn't happen, we have not seen her do well in a presidential contest.
“She was a candidate briefly in 2016 and she dropped out before the first votes were in, so she is not formidable, even though she is structurally in the inside lane.”
Ron Elving is Senior Editor and Correspondent on the Washington Desk for NPR News.
