The coronavirus outbreak is expected to start spreading more widely in the community here from early next month with the disease peaking in August.
That's what the health officials say the modelling shows and they are looking now at how to prevent that big spike.
They say even flattening it could still mean the health system is overwhelmed and what they want is a series of small peaks over a longer period of time.
That could be done by ramping up stringent controls and then easing them as the numbers of sick people rise and fall.
Professor Shaun Hendy is director of Te Punaha Matatini, a New Zealand Centre of Research Excellence focused on the study of complex systems and networks.
He speaks to Susie Ferguson.