As the country moved toward lockdown, The Listener published a column calling efforts to stop the spread of Covid-19 "hysteria" and an "overreaction"
Photo: RNZ / Jogai Bhatt
As the number of New Zealanders infected with Covid-19 grew last week, most experts and pundits were unified about the need for drastic action to stop the spread of the virus.
Otago University public health professor Michael Baker argued New Zealand should immediately step up to Alert Level 4 to avoid emulating Italy, where hospitals are overwhelmed with Covid-19 patients.
Microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles pleaded for people to self-isolate to stave off the virus.
Even Newstalk ZB’s coterie of unqualified amateur epidemiologists made a combined call for more stringent intervention.
One outlet went against the grain with a contrary opinion piece.
In a column for The Listener, Joanne Black argued the Covid-19 casualty list was inflated because many of the patients would have eventually died of other causes.
“The fatalities overseas are reported as though without Covid-19, the thousands of people who have died would still be alive. Unlikely. Most of those who, unfortunately, have died were already sick, were elderly and frail, or both,” she wrote.
Black went on to compare “hysteria” over the virus to the Salem witch trials, and argue that moves to ban large public gatherings and order returning travelers to self-isolate were an “overreaction”.
She wanted the government to tell seniors and immune-compromised people to self-isolate while younger, healthier people continue to live normally.
That’s a similar strategy to the one initially floated by the British government. It was abandoned after Imperial College experts demonstrated it would cause hundreds of thousands of deaths.
In her decision to put the country into lockdown, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said any half-measures would condemn thousands of New Zealanders to die. Most of the casualties would be from the demographic which makes up the majority of subscriptions to The Listener.
Black’s opinion piece was so irresponsible that it caught the eye of the prime minister’s chief science Juliet Gerrard, who offered to help the magazine avoid publishing more dangerous, unscientific views.
A tweet to The Listener from the prime minister's chief science advisor Juliet Gerrard Photo: Twitter
Gerrard appeared on Checkpoint on Monday to deliver a succinct explanation of the decision to lift New Zealand to Alert Level 4.
“If we didn’t act there would be cause for alarm. The virus develops relatively slowly compared to some other diseases like flu. There aren’t many in terms of per hundred cases that need to be hospitalised but if you get that sudden spike in cases, then everyone turns up at hospital at once.
“If you look at the experience of places like Italy or the UK, by the time they’re putting measures in place, hospitals are already being overwhelmed,” she said.
It was good, explanatory journalism, and a welcome relief amid a spate of ill-informed opinion and misinformation.
But Black isn’t alone. Similar ideas appear to have taken root in the political leadership and commentariat of the American right.
After Fox News host Steve Hilton argued that “the cure can’t be worse than the disease," his views were echoed on Twitter by President Donald Trump.
Texas Lt Governor Dan Patrick later appeared on Tucker Carlson’s Fox News show to say many grandparents would be willing to sacrifice their lives to save the economy for their grandchildren.
At least some parts of the US now appear poised to lift some of the restrictions put in place to combat Covid-19.
MSNBC host Chris Hayes used a portion of his Monday show to illustrate the problems with that move.
He argued the economy can’t function if 50 percent of the population gets sick and hospitals melt down under the strain.
“What kind of economy do you think we’re going to have under those conditions? Are you going to be running a business if two thirds of your staff get sick… and mounting horror stories come out of hospitals every day?”
New Zealand may be better prepared to deal with Covid-19 than the US, but a similar calculus would apply here.
It would have been good for Black and her editors to consider that cost before downplaying the virus.
Or if Black truly believes in a strategy of quarantining the elderly and letting the rest of the population deal with the disease, another option is to head to the US and see how that works out first-hand.
Microbiologist making personal calls to re-educate quarantine rule breakers
Few people have done more to help New Zealanders understand the Covid-19 pandemic than cartoonist Toby Morris and microbiologist Siouxsie Wiles.
The pair have spent a month putting together a series of concise, explanatory articles on the virus, and the moves being undertaken to stop its spread.
Many of the graphics Morris has made have been shared internationally. Prime minister Jacinda Ardern has held up several of his drawings during press conferences.
Their latest effort, ‘viruses vs everyone’, came out today, and it’s an excellent addition to their growing portfolio.
Microbiologist Dr Siouxsie Wiles Photo: Supplied
It’s likely not an exaggeration to say the pair’s work has saved lives.
But Wiles in particular is still going above-and-beyond the call of duty.
She spent Tuesday offering to ring people who are refusing to comply with the Government’s self-isolation order, in an effort to help them understand why they should change their ways.
If you have a family member who’s being recalcitrant about raising to Alert Level 4, Wiles can be reached on Twitter here, or you can direct them to the pre-recorded video she made for The Spinoff to stop her having to repeat herself.
