28 May 2022

United States trip proves Jacinda Ardern's pulling power

From Focus on Politics, 10:00 am on 28 May 2022

"It's incredibly important... in this fraught time of global politics... for us to be engaging with like-minded partners" - Jacinda Ardern

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern's second overseas trip this year - this time, to the United States - comes in the midst of numerous geopolitical uncertainties.

With Russia waging war on Ukraine and China flexing its power in the Pacific, the US has been repositioning - and New Zealand spies opportunity.

But while Ardern's visit had intended to focus primarily on trade and tourism, a tragic school shooting in Texas has diverted attention and reignited the domestic debate over gun control.

Jacinda Ardern and Joe Biden in front of an American flag

Photo: RNZ

The prime minister's American engagements began before she had even boarded the plane, joining remotely the launch of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework with US president Joe Biden and Japan's prime minister Fumio Kishida.

IPEF is not the free trade deal New Zealand would like, but it holds potential, with an intention from its 13 member countries to set shared standards in areas such as the digital economy and supply chains. 

The US has been accused of neglecting the Indo-Pacific in recent years, and China's aggressive relationship building in the Pacific looms large as motivation.

Beijing's recent security deal with the Solomons and the Chinese foreign minister's tour to sell a region-wide agreement have rattled the Pacific islands' traditional allies New Zealand and Australia.

A US return to the trans-Pacific trade pact Donald Trump abandoned in 2017 - now known as the CPTPP - would be the ideal for New Zealand, but domestic American politics make that currenly implausible.

Ardern is not giving up on the idea however, and she has some stateside supporters. At one of her first events in New York, US Chamber of Commerce vice president Myron Brilliant implored Ardern to encourage further US involvement in our part of the world. 

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The trip took on a more sombre tone after 19 students and two teachers were shot dead at Robb Elementary School in Texas, and another 17 people wounded.

The Late Show host Stephen Colbert opened his interview with Ardern by referencing New Zealand's gun law changes after the Christchurch mosque attacks in 2019, and the theme carried through in Washington DC over a series of meetings with high-profile politicians.

The tragedy has clearly elevated the prime minister's relevance in the US right now, but Ardern has been careful not to be seen to be lecturing another country on its domestic policies.

In some doubt at the outset of the trip, Ardern's most important meetings will take place in the wee hours of Wednesday morning NZ time - with Biden and his Vice President Kamala Harris

This is just the third formal White House invite a NZ prime minister has received in two decades.

Further proof of Ardern's pulling power abroad was the high-profile Harvard Commencement address marking the end of the year for the university's graduates. The speech took a different direction from her regular talking points, focusing instead on the "scourge of disinformation" online in an increasingly polarised world.

It is clear Ardern's handling of the Christchurch mosque attacks and Covid-19 have won New Zealand increased access and profile.

But the real prize - and challenge - lies ahead in a chief-to-chief chin-wag with the leader of the free world. 

In today's Focus on Politics podcast Deputy Political Editor Craig McCulloch assesses the Prime Minister's American odyssey.  

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