"If Putin remains in power and he physically remains in Russia, there's not really anything that can be done. The only possibility would be a coup that overthrows him ... or if Putin travels outside of Russia” - Stephen Smith
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is bringing new images every day of destruction, and allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity.
It brings calls for justice, for the prosecution of Russian president Vladimir Putin, and for reform at the United Nations.
New Zealand experts say it's possible, but prosecution and reform alike could take years.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: RNZ
US President Joe Biden has outright called Putin a war criminal, and National's Christopher Luxon has said he'd be comfortable doing the same.
Most leaders are more circumspect however, including Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern who argues it's up to the International Criminal Court to make that determination.
It's a position that has the rare agreement of ACT leader David Seymour: "It's not up to a politician to decide if someone's guilty, it's up to a court, and I think Jacinda Ardern has got that one right. You won't hear me say that often."
Ardern, Luxon and Seymour alike - along with all other MPs, the intelligence agency chiefs and top defence officials - have been placed on Russia's travel blacklist, and it seems likely the tit-for-tat will only escalate.
Read more:
- Russia's travel blacklist on 130 New Zealanders
- Analysis: Justice may wait as evidence of Russia's crimes is gathered
- 'What did they liberate us from?': Russian troops' brutality detailed
- Russia suspended from UN Human Rights Council
- Mahuta tight-lipped on sending weapons to Ukraine
- Putin's Ukraine war creating 'significant war crimes' - Mahuta
- Luxon labels Putin a war criminal, again urges ambassador's removal
Internationally, Russia has already been suspended from the UN Human Rights Council over alleged atrocities, and Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky has been urging its expulsion from the Security Council. As one of the five permanent members of the council Russia's veto guarantees it a diplomatic trump card.
New Zealand's former Security Council ambassador Colin Keating told Midday Report reform of the UN is possible, but it will take political will - and may take some time.
"The whole system is going to need an overhaul and that will take the same kind of political effort that it took at the end of the Second World War ... it is possible, it's achievable, even some of the permanent members - five years ago France put forward a proposal for limiting the veto - so there is political will there amongst some of the permanent members."
He says the veto has become a common diplomatic tool for the US as well as Russia, and persuading them to change won't be quick, but incremental change is an option and there are already some limits on the veto's use.
The International Criminal Court has been investigating alleged crimes in Ukraine for years, and after referrals from 41 states including New Zealand will now extend that to the current conflict. ICC prosecutor Karim Khan QC says it is an unprecedented collective call for action, and an investigative team has already been deployed to the region to start gathering evidence.
University of Otago senior law lecturer Stephen Smith says it will be critically important - if difficult - to gather reliable corroborated evidence, and even once that process is complete any prosecution could be years away.
"One of the difficulties with the International Criminal Court is they can't even start trying a case until the person has been detained ... so as long as Vladimir Putin remains free, even if we have boatloads of evidence, there's nothing we can do to start a case against him."
The separate International Court of Justice last month ruled Russia's invasion was a breach of international law, that its stated justification - preventing genocide - was no excuse, and no hearing on that could be heard until there was a ceasefire and withdrawal.
Constitutional law expert Sir Geoffrey Palmer says he's never seen a "more robust decision on provisional measures" and Russia's continued presence in Ukraine is a further breach of laws and norms.
The trouble is policing it, he says, but reputational damage may be more useful here than military force.
"No court anywhere owns big battalions ... one of the most powerful instruments in international law is public shaming and they're getting a lot of that in relation to what has happened in Ukraine and they will get more if the case comes to be argued on its merits, as I hope it will be."
RNZ has made repeated requests for an interview with Russia's Ambassador to New Zealand to respond to the allegations about his country's actions in Ukraine.
In today's Focus on Politics podcast, Political Editor Jane Patterson examines the state of play in Ukraine, and the legal and political instruments being brought to bear against Russia.
Listen free to Focus on Politics on Apple Podcasts, on Spotify, on iHeart Radio or wherever you get your podcasts.
