National Leader Christopher Luxon will need NZ First if tonight's Newshub Reid Research poll is anything to go by.
National has also dropped 2 percent- to 39.1 since the last Reid Research poll on September 11.
Two weeks on, Labour is down to a woeful 26.5 percent.
ACT is on 8.8, down 1.3 percent
The Greens are on 14.2 percent up 1.9.
And Te Pati Maori on 2.2 percent
But NZ First continues to crack the 5 percent threshold - they're on 5.2.
On those numbers, National would bring 49 MPs to Parliament and ACT 11.
With only 60 seats Christopher Luxon would need NZ First's support to form a government.
Political editor Jane Patterson speaks to Lisa Owen.