A new poll out on Tuesday has good news for Labour - they will still be able to govern alone if the Colmar Brunton predictions ring true.
But they have had a drop in support - which appears to have been picked up by minor parties.
Labour is on 48 percent, National 31 percent, ACT 7 percent, Greens 6 percent, New Zealand First 2 percent.
The poll shows Jacinda Ardern on 54 percent for preferred Prime Minister, Judith Collins on 18 percent, David Seymour and Winston Peters 2 percent.
Former parliamentary staffer under the John Key government, Thomas Pryor, and former Green Party policy director Dave Cormack join Lisa Owen with their analysis.