A storm that struck Nelson-Tasman 18 months ago has become the benchmark by which councils are projecting sea level rise in the region.
The confluence of a king tide and a storm surge generated by ex-tropical Cyclone Fehi damaged homes, roads and property right around the edge of Tasman Bay, and into Golden Bay.
Two weeks later ex-tropical Cyclone Gita hit, bringing torrential rain that flooded rivers and triggered giant landslides in a concentrated area of the Tasman District.
Tasman Mayor Richard Kempthorne is now asking people to stay calm if they receive a letter indicating their property may be at risk from sea level rise and storm tides.
He said it was the first step in the conversation about what lay ahead, and how it might be managed.
Robert Anderson, who lives on the edge of the Motueka Estuary, had to leave his two-storey home when the ocean rose up over the sandspit and roared into his house during Fehi.
Robert Anderson, who lives on the edge of the Motueka Estuary, had to leave his two-storey home during Fehi. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal
"The tide just poured over the bank and it was waist-deep further down [in the paddock]. That's why all these trees have died ... it was all under water here," he said, pointing to his prized native trees that survived the tempest.
Dr Anderson said the warning signs appeared when he and his late wife Joy began building their home in the mid-1980s.
"We were living in a caravan as there were only walls up on the house, and Joy that night said, 'we've got to move the house!'"
Dr Anderson said he asked why, and then noticed the sea flowing in under the house.
"It was running under the house and down the road - that was 1987."
View of Motueka Estuary from local resident Robert Anderson's house. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal
The sea level around New Zealand has risen at an average rate of 1.8mm per year over the last century. The Ministry for the Environment said it could rise a further metre by 2100.
Councils around the country are already taking steps to mitigate the effects, from increasing the height of building foundations to talks around relocating towns.
In Tasman, some will soon know if their property may be at risk, even if it was not directly connected to the coast. The council has released a discussion document: Coastal Management; Responding to Climate Change to which feedback and ideas are being sought until 13 September.
Mr Kempthorne knew people would be concerned.
"This is the start of a process. We've now got Niwa information and Ministry for the Environment guidance, which we need to take account of, so we must have this conversation with our community and as we move forward we'll be working out the measures that can be taken."
Bob Haswell lived on the cliffs high above Ruby Bay - a small stony-beach enclave between Mapua and Motueka in Tasman Bay.
Bob Haswell lived on the cliffs high above Ruby Bay, between Mapua and Motueka in Tasman Bay. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal
His home was away from any threat of sea level rise, but it was not immune to the effects of erosion from recent severe weather.
However, Mr Haswell said he believed the council's planning approach was misguided.
He preferred to blame recent events on "weather extremes" as opposed to climate change - a term he was already tired of.
"I think what they're trying to say is we're going to get extremes of cyclones that are going to pump water into coastal properties. So, how do you plan for that?"
Mr Kempthorne said the current action was modelled on scientific predictions.
"Some of the properties may not be affected and some may, and exactly when is anybody's guess, but what we're looking at with the information we've been given ... looking long term these are the properties and the issues we need to be making people aware of."
Russell and Rose Scott lived down a quiet country lane, not far from Robert Anderson on the edge of the Motueka Estuary. They enjoyed riding their horses along the beach, which was part of a dynamic sandspit.
Rose and Russell Scott where the tide flows near their home near the Motueka Estuary. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal
Mr Scott said the changes were happening before their eyes, and he was not sure there was a lot anyone could do.
"We're riding 30 metres inland from where we were 10 years ago - at least 30 metres and in some places more."
Local Government New Zealand has already said that while some councils saw it as inevitable they would have to take some responsibility, it was not their role to protect private property from erosion.
Mr Haswell said he did not want to think about what it could cost the ratepayer.
"What are we going to spend, the Tasman council - a billion dollars to rectify or raise the coastal plateaux, and bring truckloads of soil down from great mountains.
Child playing in rising tide at Motueka Estuary. Photo: RNZ / Tracy Neal
"I don't think so. We can't afford to do things like that."
Mr Scott reckoned halting sea level rise would be about as easy as harnessing the moon.
"Nah, it's too big a job - it's huge. I wouldn't want to be on council, coming up with ideas to try and protect it [the coast].
"You could spend a lot of money putting a lot of rocks in place, which holds the sea back for a short while."
The Scotts said an immediate priority would be for the council to fix the blocked roadside culvert outside their place, which flooded the neighbour's property and feijoa orchard in last week's heavy rain.
Mr Kempthorne said it was too early to say if the coastal management document would trigger a devaluation of properties, or a rise in insurance premiums.
