Transcript
VIJAY NAIDU: In the case of Pio Tikoduadua he comes from Tailevu province, he's a person of standing in that province and likewise Rabuka has got a big influence in the north in Cakaudrove province and so it's likely more ethnic Fijians would be voting for these two parties in contrast with the situation in 2014. You see one of the problems that the opposition does have is that fragmentation of political parties will in a kind of way give seats to Fiji First, so the system of open list nationwide constituency arrangement suits the bigger parties. In the case of Hope, depending on the candidates they are able to find to stand for them and that of course includes Tupou Draunidalo, voters will have to decide whether or not they'd like to vote for a particular candidate. Perhaps it's too late in the day for Hope to have a kind of Fiji-wide impact. That's my view. Someone like Tupou would draw strong support for her province. She has influence and backing from people in her own province.
SALLY ROUND: So key to victory in the next election is who's going to be able to garner the most indigenous voters?
VN: Certainly, that would be an important dimension of the voting arrangement. I have not seen an ethnic breakdown of voters but in terms of population, indigenous Fijians now account for nearly 60 percent of the population and therefore if that is transferred into the electorate at least then they would have a very significant role in influencing the outcomes of the election.
SR: What sort of impact do you think the recovery from Cyclone Winston is going to have on the way people vote?
VN: That's a kind of 64 thousand dollar question. You see on the one hand there are people who suffered from the destructive impacts of the cyclone and they have been very grateful for government action but at the same time too there are a whole lot of people who have not got the support. There are still people living in tents, in make-do shelters, there are still children attending tent schools . You know, one sitting here in Suva really can't say what will move the voters, you know? Both dimensions of cyclone relief action and non action have taken place.
SR: So depending on the proportion, who's happy, who's not happy, this could be crucial for who wins?
VN: That's right and also the campaign strategy used by other political parties because at the end of the day if these political parties are able to say that the Fiji First government had failed them, that the Fiji First government could have done better by doing this or the other then, yeh, their campaigning would be quite critical. The way the media is able to get voters on the side of government is critical and the Fiji TV , the Fiji radio station, the Fiji Sun newspaper, they never tire of putting the prime minister and the attorney-general's images out on the media platforms on a daily basis. I think media will play an important role . It is likely that the majority media with their pro-government positions will actually be more influential in the 2018 general election and one of the things that our research showed in the 2014 general election, the opposition parties did not use social media as well as the Fiji First party and so that would be another very important avenue of getting their messages out to the voters.
