Transcript
CYPRIRN BOSSERELLE: It's really a combination of softwares to give you a bit more detail - this global wave forecasts - we downscale it from a global scale to local scales. This wave forecast output is then used in an inundation forecast that also pools information from mean sea level symmetry data that is provided by satellites. It also provides information from tide forecasts and all this is, I want to say blended, but actually a model of a model that then uses all of this information to predict the water level close to the shore and the extent of inundation
BEN ROBINSON DARWBRIDGE: How quickly can you produce a prediction?
CB: We are using, at the bigger scale, the global wave forecasts that are produced by Australia and the US and these guys use that multiple times a day. So when they’ve got a new model that they will pull down the data to our computers and we re-run our models. So we do that about four times a day.
BRD: Why the Coral Coast as the first place to demonstrate the tool?
CB: Every couple of years there are large swell events that come to the Coral Coast and flood the low-lying areas. After we run this on the Coral Coast for a year we will see if we're happy with the product and expand it for the rest of Fiji
BRD: I suppose there are other areas in the Pacific that are prone to flooding where this tool could be useful.
CB: We're looking at developing a methodology that could be applicable for the rest of the Pacific. Fiji was really the best place first to start and then expand that to other locations. We are actually discussing places in Tuvalu potentially to do similar type of work. And we are talking with other Pacific countries who are really keen on getting these kind of tools.
BRD: Ideally, I suppose this is an early warning system that's quick - get out, get your animals out, get to higher ground.
CB: The model's accuracy for predicting the height of the swell can be good within a few days before. It's not just a last-minute get out. It's more like a get prepared, there's a major event coming, there could be a flood there really close to the shore, you might want to move your belongings. Do not stay at home for that particular night. So one of the lessons learned from Winston was a lot of people didn't know what to expect in terms of customisation. Or what people talked about in Coral about their house [being] flooded completely all the way to the roof. This is the kind of thing that we want to predict with very high accuracy but also give an idea of what type of flooding to expect in this type of event.
