French PM due in New Caledonia amid tension and uncertainty

Transcript

The French prime minister, Manuel Valls, is due in New Caledonia this week amid political tension and economic uncertainty.

The electoral rolls are highly contentious on a political level while the fall in the price of nickel has shaken the entire sector.

Jamie Tahana asked Walter Zweifel what Mr Valls is likely to find.

WZ: When Mr Valls gets to New Caledonia he will find the rival pro- and anti-independence camps at loggerheads over the make-up of the electoral rolls. The rolls will determine a) who can vote in provincial elections and b) in the referendum that is due by 2018. The French state has to date been unable to produce a roll beyond reproach, and in an unusual twist the French high commissioner in Noumea has just these days gone to the supreme court in France to challenge the removal of some people from the roll. The issue matters in many ways: any vote based on a flawed roll risks being declared invalid, plus there is a jockeying for positions now for an independence vote. In theory, it could be a tight contest and then every vote counts. The consensus though has been that the loyalists will win, in part because many Kanaks don't vote. 
New Caledonia is right-wing dominated territory and Mr Valls, as other current Socialist French leaders, is suspected of being partial to the pro-independence side while the Kanak, or pro-independence side, is being viewed as too legalistic and pedantic in challenging voters' eligibility. Paris insists that it is guided by court's interpretation of the rules governing the electorate's make-up 

JT: What about the referendum issue?

WZ: The French line has been that the Noumea Accord will be adhered to by holding a referendum by 2018. Mr Valls has exhorted New Caledonian leaders to put aside their rivalry and rise to the occasion. A lot of infighting, in particular among the loyalists, has cost time and there is no sense yet of where New Caledonia will be headed. Some loyalists want a vote as soon as possible, others suggest there should be a new accord, then some urge for a debate of what will happen on the day after the vote. Mr Valls has already hosted all signatories of the Noumea Accord in Paris in February. Progress is urged because there is an understanding that with elections in France next year, New Caledonia's institutional future won't be on the political agenda, irrespective of its importance.

JT: Now the nickel industry is in crisis. What can Mr Valls do?

WZ: French TV and other media claim that Mr Valls will announce a huge rescue package to keep the loss-making New Caledonian SLN nickel company afloat. He has already vowed that the taxpayer will step in but the latest report gives a figure and says the government will lend US$330 million. This money is aimed to buy SLN time to restructure and to sustain about 3,000 jobs for a two-year period. SLN is the territory's biggest employer, historically the engine of the economy. Keeping SLN going is also a bid to add political stability as New Caledonia enters this crucial referendum period.