Academic says Chinese rivalry gives Nauru leverage

Transcript

Rivalry between China and Taiwan for influence in the region could stiffen Nauru's resistance to pressure from New Zealand and Australia over an alleged breakdown in democracy on the island.

That's the view of an international relations specialist at Auckland University, Stephen Hoadley.

New Zealand has hinted that its aid to Nauru could be in jeopardy over alleged human rights abuses and a failing justice system.

Nauru is one of 25 countries  which have diplomatic links with Taiwan but as Stephen Hoadley explained to Sally Round, it has switched allegiance before.

STEPHEN HOADLEY: When Nauru became independent, it originally recognised Taiwan because Taiwan at that time was wealthier than China, it had more disposable income and a growing economy and so forth but as China then surged forward, the Chinese were able to outbid the Taiwanese and consequently, Nauru switched its recognition in July 2002 to China, then the Republic of China on Taiwan made a counter offer and they succeed in getting Nauru to switch its recognition to Taiwan in May 2005 and that's where things rest at the moment. Nauru is one a very small number of countries, 25 at the most around the world, mostly very small central American countries and a few Pacific island countries such as Marshall Islands that recognise the Republic of China on Taiwan rather than Beijing. So given the rivalry between the two Chinas, it's perfectly reasonable that Beijing will be looking at this as an opportunity to get recognition away from Taiwan.

SALLY ROUND: And potentially then a bidding war between Taipei and Beijing?

SH: Yes, bidding war is the phrase that has been used by scholars and journalists, it has taken place in the last couple of decades between Beijing and Taipei, not only in the Pacific islands but in other parts of the world. The current policy of the government on Taiwan is they don't want to engage in a bidding war, they want to have good relations, aid relations for example, they're into solar panels and green technology aid, they are emphasising they're going to bid on quality and contribution rather than diplomatic bribery. The experience of Fiji, when Beijing came readily to Fiji's assistance with no particular qualms about the quality of the political system in Fiji, I would speculate that if I were a Beijing policy maker I would be looking at Nauru as another opportunity to expand Beijing's influence and to show that they are a benign participant and they're not going to be too fastidious about things like human rights, civil liberties, and democracy.

SR: How important is it for Taiwan to remain diplomatically recognised by Nauru?

SH: In terms of pride of the leaders of the Republic of China on Taiwan, it's very important. They were the single government on of China up until 1949 from the time of the revolution in 1911, and since that time they've seen their influence whittled back gradually as they retreated to the island of Taiwan and then the People's Republic of China as it grew attracted more recognition so in terms of diplomatic pride of the ability to participate in international organisations, the leaders in Taipei are very concerned not to lose further recognition. Now what they can actually do about the Nauru situation is unclear, they've pledged not to use aid and other kinds of economic persuasion to win diplomatic recognition. They certainly don't have as deep pockets as the rival Beijing government does has, they would certainly make public announcements about the quality of good relations about the aid that they can give when the time is right to argue that the relationships should be one of quality rather than one of quantity or they might decide to stay out of it, and let local politics and Australia and New Zealand manage the situation.