Together, the coalition parties would have a majority with 62 seats, to the opposition's 60. Photo: RNZ
A new Curia-Taxpayers Union poll shows the coalition holding on to power - but Labour gaining 2 points following its capital gains tax announcement.
Meanwhile, National's Christopher Luxon rose in both the preferred prime minister and net favourability scores - while Labour's Chris Hipkins' scores were largely unchanged.
- Labour: 33.3 percent, up 2.1 (42 seats)
- National: 30.2 percent, up 0.6 (39 seats)
- Greens: 9.2 percent, down 2.8 (12 seats)
- NZ First: 9.1 percent, down 1.5 (12 seats)
- ACT: 8.6 percent, up 2.0 points (11 seats)
- Te Pāti Māori: 3.3 percent, down 1.1 (6 seats)
Together, the coalition parties would have a majority with 62 seats, to the opposition's 60.
For parties outside Parliament, NZ Outdoors and Freedom was on 1.5 percent, TOP was on 1.2 percent, New Conservatives on 1.2 percent, and Vision NZ on 0.4 percent.
There were 5.6 percent undecided voters and 3.2 percent of respondents refused the vote question.
The results presume Te Pāti Māori would retain their electorate seats.
The explusion of two of the party's MPs on Monday - which was after the polling period of 2 to 6 November - throws significant doubt on those assumptions.
On the preferred prime minister stakes, Luxon regained the top spot - just - with a one-point boost overshadowing the minor drop for his main rival Hipkins.
Preferred prime minister:
- Christopher Luxon: 20.8 percent - up 1 point
- Chris Hipkins: 20.6 percent - down 0.3 points
- Winston Peters: 8.5 percent, down 1.4
- David Seymour: 7.7 percent, up 3.7
- Chlöe Swarbrick: 4.1 percent, down 2.2
However, those are rankings based on voters' preference, and the net favourability score - which asks voters views on leaders - found Hipkins still outranking Luxon and Winston Peters overshadowing them both.
Peters' net favourability was 2 percent - a five-point increase - which lifted him above Hipkins' score of -2 percent, which held steady. Luxon gained four points to -10 percent, while David Seymour gained 16 points to -11 percent.
The poll surveyed 1000 eligible voters and was weighted for demographics, with a margin of error of 3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence interval.
Curia is a long-running and established pollster in New Zealand. It recently resigned its membership from the Research Association New Zealand (RANZ) industry body.
Polls compare to the most recent poll by the same polling company, as different polls can use different methologies. They are intended to track trends in voting preferences, showing a snapshot in time, rather than be a completely accurate predictor of the final election result.
