A snap poll of the Tauranga electorate has put National's Simon Bridges 20% clear of the New Zealand First leader, Winston Peters.
Mr Peters is seeking to win back Tauranga, which he lost in 2005 after 21 years as the local MP.
But a One News Colmar-Brunton poll of 519 people in the seat has Mr Peters on just 28% compared with 48 for Mr Bridges, who is standing for National after the retirement of one-term MP Bob Clarkson.
Labour's Anne Pankhurst comes in third on 15%.
In the party vote, National is well ahead on 55% with Labour on 31 and New Zealand First on 6.
That result for New Zealand First is less than half of the 13% support that the party polled at the 2005 election.
The poll was taken between Thursday and Saturday, and has a margin of error of 4.3%.