8 Oct 2008

Reserve Bank tipped to match interest rate cut by RBA

8:56 am on 8 October 2008

A big cut in the official cash rate in Australia has raised speculation of a similar move in New Zealand.

The reduction by the Reserve Bank of Australia from 7% to 6% on Tuesday was because of the severe international financial conditions.

ANZ's chief economist Cameron Bagrie, says the size of the cut was a big surprise and shows how much risk there is in global markets.

He says he expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to cut rates by the same amount.

The Reserve Bank is due to review the Official Cash Rate on 23 October.

However, Westpac chief economist, Brendan O'Donovan says a rate cut could come sooner.

He expects the Reserve Bank will at least match the Australian cut and could go lower, pushing wholesale rates as low as 4.5% or 5%.

However, the head of banking studies at Massey University, David Tripe, says he sees no circumstances to justify such a move.

Former Reserve Bank Governor Don Brash also says New Zealand does not have to follow Australia's lead.

Dr Brash says New Zealand is in a different position in the international economic cycle and while many people would welcome a cut in the rate, those who might lose interest on their savings should not be forgotten.

On 8 September, the RBNZ cut the OCR by half a percentage point to 7.5%. It previously reduced the rate from 8.25% to 8% on 24 July. It was the first cut since July 2003.

RBA move

The cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia was the first by this amount since May 1992.

In an accompanying statement, the Reserve Bank said conditions in international financial markets took a significant turn for the worse in September, and there is evidence of slowing economic growth in Australia's trading partners in Asia.

The ABC reports most economists had predicted a cut in the official cash rate of 0.5%, or 50 basis points.