ANZ Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie says he expects economic growth over the next few years to be among the most enviable levels in the world, at between 3% - 3.5%.
He says companies are increasingly optimistic, with the latest business confidence measure showing expected profitability and labour hiring at their highest levels for 19 years. The retail sector recorded the biggest lift.
ANZ's composite growth indicator predicts a 5% annual growth rate, and although Mr Bagrie says that projection is too high, he still predicts a healthy growth rate.
He says it is likely New Zealand will have 3% - 3.5% real GDP growth in the next couple of years - an impressive rate compared to other OECD countries.
Mr Bagrie says retailers have had a tough time for the last few years but are looking forward to a bumper Christmas because there is stronger migration and the labour market is beginning to improve.
Although he believes retailers will do reasonably well, he's not convinced that households have the financial potential to spend large amounts at Christmas.
Mr Bagrie says profit expectations across the survey are at a 15-year high which means firms will be more prepared to invest and spend on employment, and that will signal the next stage of New Zealand's economic recovery.
