13 Jul 2012

Traffic based economic indicator falls in June

7:41 am on 13 July 2012

A new forward indicator using traffic volumes to guess where the economy is heading has fallen 1.9% in June, holding onto about half the sharp rise in the previous month.

The ANZ Truckometer uses traffic volumes data on selected roads that best match economic growth as measured by gross domestic product.

The indicator, which is subject to volatility, gives a six month lead on economic activity, and ANZ says it suggests a recovery in momentum toward the end of the year.

The bank says recent movements in the index suggest GDP will be subdued in the second quarter of this year, with some weakness persisting into the third quarter, before rebounding.