Tower Investments predicts the current up-tick in international markets will be short-lived, but that New Zealand will weather a further global slump.
Chief executive Sam Stubbs says a prolonged global downturn is inevitable, as Europe battles huge debts and low growth, while both the United States and China are also slowing.
"Fundamental issues with the global economy are geting worse, not getting better," he said.
"Artificially-low interest rates are ... creating a false sense of confidence."
"Short-term it could look very good ... longterm, we're getting more and more concerned".
Mr Stubbs said Tower is trimming its positions in long term bonds and selling stocks in riskier growth companies - in favour of property and dividend-paying stocks - in preparation for this.
"In fixed interest, we're keeping it short-term," he said.
In equities, growth companies were looking attractive but they were trading on hope and continued low interest rates, and this was unlikely to be sustainable in the longterm.
Mr Stubbs says New Zealand will fare relatively well in the event of another global downturn, thanks to the country's strong terms of trade and cautious government spending.