27 Jan 2022

Covid-19: New Zealand well prepared for Omicron surge - Andrew Little

From Morning Report, 7:17 am on 27 January 2022

Health Minister Andrew Little says New Zealand is well-placed for an omicron outbreak - and the ICU and hospital level care capacity is there.

New Zealand could be facing 50,000 daily Omicron infections by Waitangi weekend, according to modelling by a highly respected, overseas health research organisation.

The projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, updated last Thursday, predict an outbreak here lasting about three months, and a death toll totalling more than 400 by May.

This also comes with a warning ICU capacity could come under "extreme stress" through February and March.

On Wednesday the government announced a new three-phased approach to dealing with the Omicron outbreak.

Phase one, which we're in now, will continue the stamp-it out approach with intensive contract tracing.

Phase two will be triggered when and if the country edges towards 1000 daily cases - the focus then moving to slowing the spread.

Cases will also be sent a link to health advice, or contacted via phone when appropriate. In phase two the isolation period will drop to 10 days for cases and seven for contacts.

At phase three, Associate Health Minister Dr Ayesha Verrall says there could be tens of thousands of cases.

Dr Verrall was unavailable to speak to Morning Report on Thursday.

Little told Morning Report a lot of work had been put into the plan.

"The level of preparation and planning that has gone into each phase and each stage has left us, compared to most other countries and the rest of the world, actually somewhat of a leader in terms of minimising harm to people, and that's the approach we're continuing to take."

Little said he was confident that anyone needing hospital care during the outbreak will be well taken care of.

"The work that was done by the Ministry and the DHBs last year, in preparation for Delta was that the level of intensive care or high dependency unit care needed for a Covid patient is not the same as somebody who's been through, for example, major trauma, and has multiple issues that need to be dealt with.

"So, intensive care is needed to ensure that person is breathing properly and supported and cared for, and the experience from overseas, particularly from Britain and a number of senior British clinicians had a session with senior New Zealand clinicians to say that staff were given additional surge training and working under the supervision of fully experienced and qualified ICU nurses and other staff, can provide the care that is needed."